Friday, December 12, 2008

S10 - NL MVP, Cy Young and ROY awards

NL MVP
This comes down to Frank Zhang vs. Yamid Molina. Molina best Zhang in (HR and RBI) however pales in AVG and OPS. Zhang candidacy is always tough to determine as, you do have to factor in his home park. With that said a .372 average and 1.300 + OPS is too much to ignore especially considering he did still hit 64 HR.

Pick: Frank Zhang (Col)

NL Cy Young
This one has no clear cut winner and several intriguing candidates. I am against relievers as Cy Young’s unless they have an utterly dominant season or there is a complete dearth of SP candidates, so that rules out Davison. York did fit under the utterly dominant category but I can’t value 66 IP over the 200+ provided by the 3 starter candidates. Out of the three starters Bonilla was the best leading the candidates in IP, ERA and K’s and only falling 2 W’s behind the other candidates (Owen and Gordon).

Pick: B. Bonilla (NY)

AL ROY
This one really comes down to Redding (SF) vs. Demarlee (Lou/Sal) since Demarlee clearly trumps all other hitting candidates. Demarlee’s stat line of 47 HR 115 RBI .307 is too tough to ignore considering it was borderline MVP candidate. A good back story on Demarlee is he was drafted by Lou and then traded to SF. I realized my mistake and attempted to trade back for him for two seasons without success. He was then dealt to Salem, at this point I re-doubled my efforts to get him back, before finally succedding with what was probably my 20th offer for the Slugger. For the season Demarlee was a member of 3 organizations.

Pick: Demarlee (Lou/Sal/SF)

NL ROY
I found this one a very difficult one to sort out in the end it came down to Reyes (SLC), Keagle (Col) and Santiago (SJ). Keagle’s hitting numbers were beyond impressive however, his home park did come into my thought process especially considering he only he .273 in Coors, had he played in a neutral park that would have been closer to .250. Although I did think it would be fun to watch Radek’s head explode if he picked him as ROY, I just couldn’t pull the trigger.

So in the end it came down to a battle of two pitchers Reyes and his 200 IP vs. Santiago and his 120 IP. Typically, I place a huge premium on IP especially if the rest of their stats are comparable. However, Santiago’s 13-0 in an extreme hitters park did give me cause to waver. In the end I had to go with Reyes who ERA was only slightly higher than Santiago but pitched 80 more innings.

Pick: David Reyes (SLC)

S10 - AL MVP and Cy Young awards

This season I am evaluating the five AL MVP’s and Cy Young candidates and placing them in the order I’d put them on my ballot. I am also going to name two honourable mentions, the best two players that were not on the final candidates list. Please note this write-up was completed after 161 games.

AL MVP

1. Magglio Javier (Louisville): 114 R (11th), 44 HR (T-9 ), 135 RBI (3rd), .319 AVG (6th), .986 OPS (T-9)I must say this was by far the toughest year to pick AL MVP’s. You could make a case for Purcell, Guerreo, Javier or Cox as the MVP. Their stats across the board are extremely similar. What clinched Javier as the MVP (no it wasn’t that he’s on my team), was the fact he was the only candidate to make the playoffs. With everything else being so equal that worked as a tiebreaker. Additionally, Javier was also only one of two candidates to rank in the top 10 of the 5 major categories (was 11th in the 5th).If Javier were to win this would tie him with Lou Stevenson for the most MVP’s overall (5) and give him the lead for most AL MVP’s, which he currently shares with Stevenson at (4).

2. Ozzie Purcell (Sco): 123 R (2nd), 53 HR (2nd), 113 RBI (14th), .268 AVG (NR), .997 OPS (6th)Purcell had a fantastic year and I’m not going to penalize him for a low average since he did still manage to generate a great OBP. He lead all MVP candidates with 53 HRs which was good enough for him to grab the 2nd spot.

3. Sean Guerreo (Tex): 122 R (T-3), 46 HR (T-6), 118 RBI (T-9), .308 AVG (T-9), .968OPS (11th)Texas just missed the playoffs, had Guerreo powered the Beefeaters into the playoffs he would have valuated to number 2 on this list. He like Javier was top 10 in four categories and was 11th in the 5th.

4. Braden Cox (Pawtucket): 109 R (14th), 46 HR (T-6), 110 RBI (T-16), .303 AVG (16th), .996 OPS (6th)Cox stats were just behind his peers. He did best the top 4 in OPS, however he was 4th in R and RBI’s. He was the only member of the top 4 to finish 4th in two categories.

5. Glenn McCarty (Tex): 113 R (T-12), 19 HR (NR), 79 RBI (NR), .357 AVG (1st), 1.001 OPS (4th)No offense to McCarty but despite the .357 AVG he had no business being in the top 5. As he ranked well outside of the top 25 in both HR and RBI’s. There were several more deserving candidates to take the 5th spot. This nomination once again reflects WIS’ skew towards average over power.

Honorable Mention:

Alridge/Herdnadez (Atl): Both Atlanta players had fantastic years, however they came over from the NL half-way through the season but their totals would have been right among the top AL players. It will be interesting to see how they perform over a full year in the AL. Unlike real ML baseball, the AL is more of a pitchers league especially with respect to parks compared to the NL league which is definitely more hitter friendly.

Jamie Cashman (Tex): 113 R (13th), 62 HR (1st) , 152 RBI (1st), ..276 (NR), .938 OPS (14th)Cashmen fell to WIS’s distain for averages below .300. He would have been a much better candidate than his teammate McCarty especially considering the fact he lead the league in HR and RBI’s. I will admit I am glad he got snubbed because his inclusion would have only further muddied the water of the rankings above.

AL Felipe Bournigal Award:

1. Pete Daly (SF): 257 IP (1st), 17 W (T-5), 244 K (1st) , 3.12 ERA (5th)For the first time since I started doing the award rankings I will cast my Cy Young vote for pitcher not name Bouringal. In the end it came down to Meng and Daly for the top spot. The additional 14 IP (2 starts worth of innings) and 77 K’s outweighed 2 W and .09 ERA. Daly was the more dominant pitcher and gave his team the most innings in the league.

2. Mark Meng (Sco): 243 IP (2nd), 19 W (T-2), 177 K (5th), 3.03 ERA (4th)Meng vs. Bournigal was extremely close as they tied for W and were only 4 K’s apart. However, the extra 49 IP (or seven starts worth of innings) carries more value to myself than the difference in ERA as Meng going deeper and more often would most definitely improve Scottsdales entire team ERA and health.

3. Felipe Bournigal (SF): 194 IP (T-22), 19 W (T-2), 173 K (6th), 2.18 ERA (1st)Every run must come to an end and injuries and loss of stamina have finally caught up to Bournigal. What I mean by that is he’s no longer CLEARLY the best pitcher in the world. He’s simply one of the top 3. Had Bournigal got to 220 IP and keep his ERA sub 2.25, he would have been my choice.

4. Gene Fitzgerald (Lou): 223 IP (6th), 22 W (1st), 157 K (T-16), 3.87 ERA (17th)14 starts into the season when Fitzgerald was 11-1, I had delusions that it might be a Slugger pitcher that would knock off Bournigal. Obviously, that will not be the case. Fitzgerald had a great season but was clearly not in the league of the top 3 although he did manage to lead the AL in win’s.

5. Jose Diaz (Tex): 230 IP (4th), 18 W (4th), 184 K (T-3), 4.08 ERA (18th)Solid across the board (top 5 in three categories), however a 4+ ERA doesn’t scream Cy Young. Diaz is a young pitcher who continues to improve, I would expect him to be a top 5 fixture for years to come.

Honourable Mention:

Elvis Ogea (Wash)/Steve Sheldon (Paw): These pitchers finished 2nd/3rd in ERA, however they were ultimately shut-out from Cy Young contention based upon low IP (sub 200) and low win totals. With that said both had great seasons and while their win totals weren’t huge the did sport fantastic win %’s (.765 Ogea and .714 Sheldon)

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Season 10 Power Rankings

Not only do we have 2 new teams in the top 10 but for the first time in 3 seasons we have a change at the #1 spot. Here are top 10 teams going into season 10...

#1. New York Metropolitans (106-56) - (+1) – After winning the WS last season Metropolitans found themselves on top of the power rankings for the first time in franchise history. There’s no MVP’s, Cy Young, ROY, Fireman award winners on this team but at the same time there’s no weakness either. Their strength is the pitching staff that finished season 9 with 3.67 team ERA and 1.26 team WHIP, both 2nd best in Hunter. The offense finished 3rd in Hunter with 989 RS but had the best road BA (.305) and 2nd best overall team BA (.295). Last season addition Trinidad Molina and this off-season addition Matty Garces make this line up much stronger.

#2. Louisville Sluggers (98-64) - (+2) – Sluggers won their first ever AL pennant last season finally beating San Francisco Night Demons (4-2) in the ALCS. In the ALDS they took care of very strong New Britain Yorkies (3-1). If pitching and defense wins championships than Louisville is on the right track, last season they finished with the 3rd best pitching staff (4.05era), 6th best offense (936rs) and Hunters top defense (.985FPct.). Sluggers superstar Magglio Javier already has 4 AL MVP awards and will be looking for a 5th one this season. Sluggers were also voted the favorite to win the World Series this season.

#3. San Francisco Night Demons (109-53) - (-2) – San Francisco won Championships in season 6 and season 7 while posting Hunters’ best regular season record in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Their ability to shut down the best of offenses is what drives this team, Night Demons pitching staff led by Felipe Bournigal and Pete Daly has ranked first in Hunter for the past 5 seasons. My vote for the favorite to win the WS this season went to the Night Demons simply because of Felipe Bournigal and Pete Daly, facing these two multiple times in a playoff series can’t be much fun. Betwen the two of them they have 15 All Star apperances, Felipe also won 5 straight AL Cy Young awards from S5 to S9.

#4. Colorado Blasters (100-62) - (-1) – Blasters yet again displayed last season why they are considered to be the powerhouse of the NL. Not only are they in the playoffs every single season they also won 2 Championships in S3 and S5. Last season Colorado took current Champs Metropolitans to extra innings of game 7 in the NLCS, that’s how close they came to the WS. Colorado is the opposite of San Francisco as their strength is in the line up, Blasters have ranked first in Hunter for the past 6 seasons in runs scored and home runs and it looks like it will be more of the same this season. The back bone of this line up is Hunters best power hitter Frank Zhang who won the ROY in season 4 and two MVP awards in season 6 and season 9. Erubiel Johnson, Alan Grimsley, Lonny Iglesias and Jason Hutton complete the best line up in Hunter.

#5. San Juan TCB (94-68) - (E) – San Juan is another team that’s always in the playoffs, they have never finished lower than 2nd in the NL south and have five division titles in nine seasons. They held the second best record in the NL most of last season and went into the playoffs as the 4th seed. Their playoffs ended quickly as division mate Santa Fe Flyers beat them in the NLDPS (3-1). TCB offense finished second in Hunter last season with 1053 runs scored, led by veteran Angel Bolivar who maybe the best pound for pound player in Hunter. This club holds the 5th position on the power rankings for a reason and is one of the favorites to win it all in season 10.

#6. Pittsburgh Studdabubbas (96-66) - (E) – Pittsburgh was the surprise team in the NL last season, winning the NL North for the first time in franchise history and posting franchise best 96 wins. Studdabubbas pitching staff finished 12th best (4.39era) last season, the loss of SP Doc Robinson will hurt even with the addition of SP Shawn Owen. The offense finished 9th best (903rs) and defense finished 12th best. Superstar 1B Willie Drew, 2B Archie Blake, LF Wayne Hernandez and the addition of SS Rodrigo Brito make this line up very dangerous for opposing pitchers.

#7. New Britain Yorkies (95-67) - (+4) – Yorkies finished season 9 with impressive 95 wins, winning the AL North crown by 15 games ahead of Pawtucket. New Britain entered the playoffs as the #3 seed in the AL, in the DPIS they disposed of Texas Beefeaters (3-1) but lost in the ALDS (1-3) to the current AL Champ. With the 9th best pitching staff (4.32era), 12th best offense (877rs) and 15th best defense (.980FPct.) this team doesn’t need much to move up the rankings in the near future. The addition of veteran Ace Derek O’Keefe makes this pitching staff much stronger, after winning 95 games last season without Derek they should be one of the favorites in the AL with him.

#8. Scottsdale Aces (93-69) - (+3) – Season 8 Champs had a slow start last season but stormed back in the second half to win 93 games and earn the 5th seed in the AL playoffs. Aces 4th ranked offense (953rs) is this teams back none, RF Ozzie Purcell and 2B J.R. Alston are two young stand outs in this line up. The pitching staff finished 10th in Hunter (4.32era) but with young SP Christopher Kieschnick and veteran Mark Meng it should only get better. 7th best defense makes Scottsdale very good all around and will be very tough in a playoff series.

#9. Washington DC Generals (92-70) - (-1) - 8th ranked pitching staff (4.26era), 15th ranked offense (846rs) and 3rd ranked defense (.984FPct) place the Generals in the 9th place on the rankings. Washington won the AL East crown 9 straight seasons and have 3 Championships (S1,S2 and S4). Lately it's been a bit different as they have been eliminated early in the playoffs for five straight season, they haven't reached the ALCS since S4. Last season the Generals came into the playoffs as the 4th seed but lost in the first round (ALDPS) to Scottsdale Aces (2-3).

#10. Santa Fe Flyers (91-71) - (-2) - Another surprise team in season 9, Santa Fe finished only 3 games behind San Juan in the NL South and advanced to the playoffs for the first time in 6 seasons. In the playoffs the Flyers beat San Juan (3-2) in the first round and gave New York all the could handle before losing in 5 games of the NLDS. The Flyers offense is probably the single reason why they won 91 games, their 953 RS and .289 team BA ranked them 4th best in Hunter. The pitching staff wasn't as good posting a biz-mo 5.23 team ERA and 1.60 team WHIP that ranked them 27th in the World, off season departure of ace Derek O'Keefe and the 29th ranked defense definitely doesn't help.

Monday, October 6, 2008

New York Metropolitans: Season 9 Champs!!!

New York Metropolitans entered the playoffs as the #1 seed in the NL with a 106-56 regular season record. In the NLDS they defeated Santa Fe Flyers in 5 games (3-2). With the series tied at 2-2 Santa Fe took 3-1 lead into the 8th inning of game 5 but in the bottom of the 8th Metropolitans scored 4 times on 5 hits for a huge game 5 come from behind victory. In NLCS New York beat the #2 seed Colorado Blasters (4-3). Losing the first 2 games at home Metropolitans were against the wall again but they stormed back and took the next 3 games in Colorado for a 3-2 series lead. Colorado won game 6 and forced game 7. With the NLCS on the line game 7 was tied 1-1 in the bottom of the 12th inning, after 3 walks youngster Louie Tavarez singled to CF and pushed the Mets to the World Series. In the World Series New York faced the very strong Louisville Sluggers club who defeated San Francisco in the ALCS (4-2). WS begin with a Metropolitans game 1 victory on a walk off 3-run HR by pinch hitter S.Thomas for a 1-0 series lead. NY won game 2 also but Louisville came back to take the next 2 and tie the series at 2-2. Metropolitans took the series lead again winning game 5 but the Sluggers decided to force game 7 with a game 6 victory. In game 7 of the WS Sluggers took a 4-1 lead into the 6th but 22 y.o. rookie had something to say about that, L.Cruz came to bat with bases loaded and belted a grand slam to LF to give New York 5-4 lead. The bullpen shut the door in the final 3 innings and the celebration begin.

In every series they were down in the deciding and most critical moments and found a way to win every single time.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

AL Felipe Bournigal award and MVP

This season I am evaluating the five AL MVP’s and Bournigal award candidates and placing them in the order I’d put them on my ballot. I am also going to name two honourable mentions, the best two players that were not on the final candidates list. Please note this write-up was completed after 161 games.

AL MVP

1. Magglio Javier (Louisville): 120 R (T-2), 52 HR (2nd ), 142 RBI (1st), .315 AVG (8th), 1.015 OPS (T-2)

The 3-time and 2-time defending MVP put together another fantastic season. The only candidate to finish in the top 10 in R, HR, RBI, AVG and OPS, while finishing in the top 2 for R, HR, RBI and OPS. Add those stats to the fact Magglio Javier powered the Sluggers to the 2nd best AL record and I think he can add a 3rd MVP to his mantle. I’m sure some people will think I’m biased to my own player but the numbers bear his ranking out.

2. Braden Cox (Pawtucket): 120 R (T-2), 49 HR (3rd), 120 RBI (5th), .302 AVG (21st), 1.015 OPS (T-2)

Last year’s runner up looks to be a bride’s maid again. Cox might have dethroned Javier has he avoided the 2 trips to the DL this season with that said in the end Cox only played 6 games fewer. In the 5 major cats the best Cox could do is two ties. The record of 0-3-2 vs Magglio speaks for itself. The future looks bright for Cox as Magglio’s power numbers are slowly beginning to erode. This former MVP will likely take the mantle as the AL’s best hitter very shortly.

3. Ozzie Purcell (Sco): 122 R (1st), 40 HR (T-10), 109 RBI (13th), .289 AVG (NR), .968 OPS (6th)

The top 3 slot into their spots quite easily. Purcell’s power numbers put him squarely infront of McCarty and Zorilla. While his average and HR total place him behind Cox and Javier. It does deserve to be noted that Purcell lead the AL in runs (2 better than Javier/Cox) and finished in the top 10 of three major categories.

4. Juan Zorrilla (SF): 85 R (NR), 26 HR (NR), 109 RBI (14th), .332 AVG (3rd), .948 OPS (9th)

This is the part of the list where WIS places too heavy a focus on average. I actually think McCarty had a slightly better year but, this is MVP voting and Zorrilla gets credit for playing on the better team. I won’t say he’s SF best player as that mantle goes to Bournigal. Normally I am against SP as the MVP however, had he made the list of final candidates I would have had a really tough time picking between him and Javier.

5. Glenn McCarty (Tex): 103 R (12th), 26 HR (NR), 94 RBI (NR), .329 AVG (4th), 1.001 OPS (4th)

Texas’ 2nd best hitter made the list while their best hitter (Kaufman) got snubbed. I’d like to take this spot to congratulate Texas on their first playoff appearance. Wolfhound has been in Hunter since season 1, so it was very nice to see his persistence payoff. I fully expect the Beefeaters to push the Sluggers hard next season in the AL South

Honorable Mention:

Desi Nixon (Har): 114 R (2nd), 41 HR (9th), 135 RBI (2nd), .302 AVG (T-20) , 1.024 OPS (1st)

Nixon should check to see if he’s missing his wallet because he was robbed not to make the finalists. Had he made the list I would have ranked him 3rd just in front of Purcell. Nixon was the only player other than Javier to finish in the top 20 in all five categories. He should have received the recognition of making the finalists.

Bruce Kaufman (Tex): 90 R (NR), 43 HR (7th) , 105 RBI (T-16), .302 AVG (T-20), .990 OPS (5th)

SF deserves to have a player on the MVP finalist list. So I would swap Kaufman in for his teammate McCarty. The only thing holding Kaufman back is his lack of durability, which keeps him out of 35 games or so a season.


AL Felipe Bournigal Award

1. Felipe Bournigal (SF): 229 IP (T-5), 21 W (T-1), 214 K (2nd), 1.65 ERA (1st)

The award’s namesake put together he’s best season to date. An argument for another candidate can’t even be made. The race for 2nd is extremely interesting as all four pitchers can make a valid claim that they are the best “human” pitcher. As it’s been revealed that Bournigal is from another planet.

2. Pete Daly (SF): 229 IP (T-6), 20 W (T-3), 221 K (1st) , 2.87 ERA (3rd)

When it comes to the Bourngial Award, I put a lot of focus on IP and K’s. Therefore Daly last year’s runner-up deserves 2nd spot again. Led the league in K’s, was top 10 in IP. He’s sub-3 ERA clinched the 2nd spot on the list.

3. Bob Creek (Lou): 242 IP (1st), 21 W (T-1), 206 K (3rd), 3.71 ERA (12th)

This was an extremely hard spot to pick however, based on my value of K’s and IP, Creek edges out Meng for the 3rd spot. Creek bested Meng in IP (14), W (3) and K’s (39) which was just enough to justify the .88 difference in ERA.

4. Mark Meng (Sco): 228 IP (8th), 18 W (T-6), 167 K (10th), 2.83 ERA (2nd)

Meng came to Scottdale in the year of the FA pitcher (when WIS closed the loop-hole of extending your own player by one year). Meng’s contract was the largest contract ever given to a starting pitcher and thus far he has earned every dollar of it. Meng lead Scottsdale to a WS last year and has them back in the playoffs for a chance to defend the title.

5. Giovanni Dale (NB): 230 IP (T-4), 20 W (T-3), 156 K (13th), 3.21 ERA (6th)

Dale another member of the bumper FA pitcher crop of Season 8 has also earned every dollar of his contract. It was a coin flip between Dale and Meng but the .4 difference in ERA and 11 extra K’s was enough to overcome 2 W and 2 IP.

Honourable Mention:

Mark Cheng (Paw) & Phillip Daniels (Bur): The top 5 were clearly the class of the AL this season. I wouldn’t bump any of them out for Cheng or Daniels but both do deserve a mention for almost identical great seasons.